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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-07-10T04:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-10T04:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25870/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery (data gap during event in STEREO A as it travels out in the field of view). The source of this CME is a double ribbon flare near AR13366 and plage region 13358 and associated filament eruption starting around 2023-07-10T03:20Z. The eruption is most clearly visible in SDO/AIA 131, 304, and 171. The associated filament is very clearly seen in GOES SUVI 304 as well. Arrival signature: Clear interplanetary shock consisting of magnetic field enhancement from 7 nT to 14 nT, rapid increase in ACE particle density, and rapid but relatively small increases in solar wind speed and temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-13T15:49Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-13T00:28Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/25872/1
Model Inputs:
2023-07-10T04:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=37.0, Lat.=-10.0, Speed=901.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2023-07-10T07:48Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-07-13T00:28Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =27.3 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.2
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-REx with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-07-13T11:45Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-07-11T09:57Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-07-12T23:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230710_074800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230710_074800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230710_074800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230710_074800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230710_074800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230710_074800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230710_074800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230710_074800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230710_074800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230710_074800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230710_074800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230710_074800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230710_074800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 74.15 hour(s)
Difference: 15.35 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2023-07-10T13:40Z

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